2024 is on the brink of becoming Earth’s hottest year ever, and the planet’s recent weather patterns are unlike anything we’ve seen before. July 2024 didn’t break records for the hottest month, but it delivered the two hottest days in history. Ocean temperatures are still soaring, and something unsettling is happening in the world’s waters, with mysterious marine heatwaves threatening vital coral reefs. Arctic and Antarctic ice levels are shrinking, raising eyebrows among scientists. As global temperatures creep upward, one question remains: are we already too late to turn the tide?
Hottest Year on Record
The year 2024 is on track to be the hottest year ever recorded, according to Copernicus, the European Union’s Climate Change Service. While July 2024 did not break records for the hottest month, it did see the two hottest days on record. Despite a slight dip in temperatures, the overall trend shows the planet continuing to warm.
July Temperatures Almost Break Records
July 2024 was the second-warmest July globally, narrowly missing the record set in July 2023. The average surface air temperature for July 2024 was 16.91°C (62.44°F). This was 1.48°C (2.66°F) higher than the pre-industrial average from 1850 to 1900, highlighting significant warming over time.
Two Warmest Days Ever Recorded in July 2024
July 22 and July 23, 2024, were the warmest days ever recorded globally. The average global temperatures on these days reached 17.16°C (62.89°F) and 17.15°C (62.87°F), respectively. The difference was so small that it’s hard to determine which day was warmer.
A Slight Dip in Global Temperatures
For the first time in over a year, July did not set a new monthly temperature record. Scientists had predicted a slight drop due to the end of El Niño and the onset of La Niña conditions in the Pacific. However, the overall trend still points towards continued warming.
Human Activity Drives Long-Term Warming
Despite natural variations, human-induced climate change is the primary driver of rising global temperatures. Copernicus deputy director Samantha Burgess emphasized that climate warming will continue until greenhouse gas emissions reach net zero. The recent dip in temperature does not change the larger context of global warming.
Likelihood of 2024 Becoming the Hottest Year
According to Copernicus, it is becoming more likely that 2024 will end up as the warmest year on record. The average global temperature anomaly so far is 0.27°C (0.49°F) higher than the same period in 2023. A significant temperature drop would be required for 2024 not to surpass 2023 as the hottest year.
The Last Cooler-Than-Average Year Was in 1976
The last year that Earth recorded a cooler-than-average temperature was 1976. This highlights the sustained warming trend over the past several decades. Since then, global temperatures have continued to rise, driven largely by human activities.
Sea Surface Temperatures Remain High
July 2024 saw global daily sea surface temperatures well above average across most oceans. The average sea surface temperature was 69.58°F, making it the second-highest on record for July. This marks the end of 15 months of record-breaking sea surface temperatures for their respective months.
Marine Heatwaves Impact Coral Reefs
Persistent marine heatwaves are keeping sea surface temperatures near record levels in several parts of the globe. These heatwaves are a significant threat to the health of coral reefs. NOAA reported that a global coral reef bleaching event, the second in a decade, began in April 2024.
Arctic and Antarctic Sea Ice Levels Drop
Arctic and Antarctic sea ice levels reached concerning lows in July 2024. Antarctic sea ice extent was 11% below average, the second-lowest for July on record. Meanwhile, Arctic sea ice was 7% below average, lower than levels observed in July 2022 and 2023.
Paris Agreement Goals and Warming Thresholds
The Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. While temporarily exceeding this threshold is not considered a failure, it signals that more substantial warming could occur if emissions are not reduced. The current data indicates that the 1.5°C limit might be breached more frequently in the coming decade.
Active Tropical Cyclone Season Expected
Persistent high ocean temperatures in the Atlantic could lead to an active tropical cyclone season. The National Hurricane Center has issued its highest-ever May outlook for cyclone activity. This prediction is due to the unusually warm ocean temperatures, which are a key factor in cyclone formation.
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