Skip to Content

Contradictions Galore: The Old Farmer’s Almanac is Forecasting a Calmer, Gentler U.S. Winter

Old Farmer’s Almanac is Forecasting a Calm, Gentle Winter

There appears to be a duel between the two almanacs predicting entirely “polar” opposite winters across the United States. While the Farmer’s Almanac winter forecast is headlined “A Winter Whirlwind,” the Old Farmer’s Almanac is forecasting a gentler, calmer winter.

Every year the Old Farmer’s Almanac releases its much-anticipated winter forecast, combining wit, wisdom, and weather predictions. For the 2024–2025 season, the Almanac predicts a “calmer, gentler” winter compared to recent years, with temperatures slightly warmer than average across most of the United States.

Temperature Outlook: A Warmer Winter Nationwide

Winter sunset
Winter sunset. Image by Alain Audet via Pixabay

The U.S. astronomical winter will officially begin with the winter solstice on 21st December 2024. The general trend for the 2024–2025 winter indicates warmer-than-usual temperatures across most regions. This warming trend is partly attributed to the peak of Solar Cycle 25, which has historically been associated with milder winters. However, this warmth won’t be uniform, with some regions still experiencing cold snaps, especially in mid-December, late January, and late February. According to Carol Connare, the Almanac’s editor-in-chief: “We’re predicting a temperate, uneventful winter—potentially a welcome reprieve from the extremes of recent years.”

Snowfall Expectations: Regional Variations

Old Farmer's almanac
Old Farmer’s almanac. Image created via Canva Pro

The prediction is a warmer winter than usual with below-normal precipitation. People can expect colder weather from mid-January onwards. Snowfall is expected to be below average in many areas, but regions like the central and southern Appalachians, Rockies, and parts of the Southeast may see above-average snowfall. These areas could experience their heaviest snowfalls in December, February, and March, making it a mixed bag for snow lovers across the country.

Regional Highlights: Diverse Weather Patterns

New Hampshire in winter
New Hampshire in winter. Image via Pixabay

Each of the 18 U.S. regions will experience different winter weather. For example:

Northeast: Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, and eastern New York—These areas can expect warmer temperatures with slightly below-average snowfall. January will most probably experience temperatures 4°F above average in the far north.

Atlantic Corridor: New York, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, as well as major cities from Boston and NYC to Washington, D.C., and Richmond, can expect average temperatures (2% colder than average in February) with variable snowfall.

Southeast: Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina will be cooler in the east and warmer in the west, with above-average snowfall.

Florida: Winter is anticipated to be cooler than usual overall. February might see temperatures about 3°F above average, with near-average conditions for the rest of the season. The coldest periods are likely in late November, December, January, and February. Rainfall will be slightly above average.

Pacific Northwest: Colder in the north with above-average snowfall.

Regional Summary

Colorado in winter
Colorado in winter. Image by Chipset85 via Pixabay

Regions that can expect a slightly warmer winter: The Lower Lakes, The Deep South, The Midwest, The Heartland, Texas and Oklahoma, the High Plains, the Pacific Southwest, and Hawaii.

Regions that can expect a colder winter: Southeast, Ohio Valley, Intermountain, Desert Southwest (above-average rainfall with above average snowfall in areas that generally receive snow), Pacific Northwest.

Alaska: A warmer winter -coldest in December and early January. Precipitation will be below average, with above-average snowfall in the south and west.

Impact of Ocean Patterns: ENSO and Oscillations

El Nino and LA Nina
El Nino and La Nina. Source: National Weather Service

Ocean-atmospheric patterns, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), play a significant role in shaping the winter forecast. The 2024–2025 winter might see a neutral or weak La Niña phase, leading to warmer temperatures in some regions and cooler, wetter conditions in others. Additionally, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation contribute to these variations.

Solar Cycle Influence: The Role of the Sun

Solar Cycle 25
Solar minimum and maximum. Source: NOAA

The Old Farmer’s Almanac relies on solar cycles, believing that the number of sunspots can influence the long-range weather here on Earth. The Sun’s activity, particularly as it reaches the maximum of Solar Cycle 25, is another crucial factor in this year’s winter forecast. Increased solar activity typically leads to warmer global temperatures, influencing the milder winter predictions for this season.

How Does the Old Farmer’s Almanac Predict Weather

Old Farmer’s Almanac is Forecasting a Calm, Gentle Winter
An Icy Field. Image via Pixabay

The Old Farmer’s Almanac uses a combination of solar science, climatology, and meteorology to create its long-range forecasts. By comparing historical weather patterns and solar cycles, the Almanac provides seasonal outlooks that have been traditionally 80 per cent accurate.

Conclusion: Preparing for a Mild but Variable Winter

Old Farmer’s Almanac is Forecasting a Calm, Gentle Winter
A winter’s day. Image via Pixabay

While the 2024–2025 winter is expected to be milder and less extreme than previous years, regional variations in temperature and snowfall mean that some areas will still experience significant winter weather events. The Old Farmer’s Almanac encourages readers to stay informed and prepared, whether that means stocking up on fuel, readying snow shovels, or simply enjoying the milder winter conditions.