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Why Florida is at Risk of Becoming a Sunken State

West Key, Florida.
West Key, Florida. C Watts, CC BY 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

In March, astrophysicist Neil DeGrasse Tyson shared a provocative map on X (formerly Twitter) that depicted a future where Florida and much of the East and Gulf Coasts of the United States were submerged underwater. The image went viral, quickly amassing 4.9 million views and igniting public debate about the risks facing these regions.

Florida’s Geography

Miami beach, Florida. Image by korzeniewski via Depositphotos.
Miami beach, Florida. Image by korzeniewski via Depositphotos.

Florida’s flat terrain makes it particularly vulnerable to rising sea levels. Tyson pointed out that the state’s low elevation puts it at greater risk as the climate changes. With much of Florida only a few feet above sea level, even a modest increase could have catastrophic consequences for its residents and infrastructure.

Rising Sea Levels

global warming: ocean level rise on waterfront in Europe.
global warming: ocean level rise on waterfront in Europe. Image by galitskaya via Depositphotos.

The risk of Florida becoming a sunken state is largely due to the global rise in sea levels. As global temperatures rise, polar ice caps and glaciers are melting at an accelerated rate, causing oceans to expand. If all the ice on Earth were to melt, sea levels could surge by 216 feet, dramatically altering coastlines worldwide, including Florida’s.

A Look Ahead

Neil deGrasse Tyson's Florida prediction.
Neil deGrasse Tyson’s Florida prediction. Image by Neil deGrasse Tyson via X.

The map shared by Tyson seems to draw from a 2013 issue of National Geographic, which explored what would happen if the world’s ice completely melted. Under that scenario, large parts of Florida, along with many other coastal regions around the globe, would be underwater, offering a stark illustration of the potential impacts of unchecked climate change.

How Much Time Do We Have?

Melting ice.
Melting ice. Image by akesin@gmail.com via Depositphotos.

While the idea of Florida disappearing beneath the waves may seem far-fetched, experts suggest that it could take over 5,000 years for all of the Earth’s ice to melt if current greenhouse gas emissions continue. Even without a complete meltdown, however, significant sea-level rise is expected over the next several centuries.

The Role of Greenhouse Gas Emissions

High water and flooding the streets in Steyr, Austria.
High water and flooding the streets in Steyr, Austria. Image by ginasanders via Depositphotos.

Greenhouse gas emissions are the primary force behind global warming and, consequently, sea-level rise. Without significant reductions in emissions, parts of Florida could face extensive flooding in the future. Cutting these emissions is vital to reducing the risks to coastal areas worldwide.

A Gradual but Unstoppable Threat

Florida.
Florida. NASA, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

David Thornalley, an expert in ocean and climate science at University College London, considers the scenario depicted in Tyson’s map “a very extreme example.” Yet, he also notes that even under more moderate emission scenarios, sea levels are likely to rise by more than 10 meters (33 feet) in the coming centuries, making Florida’s potential submersion more plausible than it might initially seem.

Florida’s Limestone Bedrock

Fort Pierce, Florida.
Fort Pierce, Florida. Photograph by D Ramey Logan, CC BY-SA 4.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

Florida’s unique geology adds another challenge to its fight against rising sea levels. Much of the state sits on porous limestone bedrock, which allows water to flow through it easily. This means that traditional barriers like sea walls might not be sufficient to keep water at bay, as water can seep up from below, increasing the likelihood of flooding.

Economic and Human Costs of Rising Seas

Underneath the surface of the ocean.
Underneath the surface of the ocean. Image via Unsplash

If sea levels rise significantly, Florida’s economy and its people will suffer severe consequences. The state’s economy relies heavily on tourism, real estate, and agriculture—industries that are highly susceptible to flooding and storm damage. Additionally, millions of residents could be forced to relocate, creating a potential humanitarian crisis.

A Global Issue with Local Ramifications

World map.
World map. Transparent 6lue, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

While the threat to Florida is stark, it is part of a much larger global problem. The National Geographic report noted that, in the event of significant sea-level rise, other regions, including parts of South America, the Netherlands, Denmark, and even Australia, could face similar challenges, with millions potentially needing to be relocated.

Steps to Prevent a Sinking Florida

A storm brewing out at sea.
Image by baronmarinkovic via Pexels.

Florida’s future does not have to be underwater, but preventing this outcome requires immediate and decisive action. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions, investing in resilient infrastructure, and planning for climate adaptation are crucial steps. The decisions made today will determine whether Florida remains a vibrant state or becomes a sunken relic of climate change.