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How a 4.5˚C Global Temperature Rise Could Drive Half of All Species to Extinction by 2100

How a 4.5˚C Global Temperature Rise Could Drive Half of All Species to Extinction by 2100
How a 4.5˚C Global Temperature Rise Could Drive Half of All Species to Extinction by 2100. Creation via Canva.

Climate change is pushing animals to their limits, forcing them to adapt, move, or face extinction. From butterflies forgetting their migration paths to corals fighting to survive in warmer oceans, nature is scrambling to keep up. But some species have surprising tricks up their sleeves—hidden abilities to transform in ways scientists are just beginning to understand. Could these secret adaptations save them, or is time running out faster than we think? Dive into a world where survival hangs by a thread, and discover the unexpected ways life is fighting back.

The Ever-growing Threat Of Climate Change

frog
Red-eyed Amazon Tree frog. Image by davemhuntphoto via Depositphotos

If global temperatures rise by 4.5˚C, up to half the animals and plants in some of the world’s most diverse areas could go extinct by 2100. Even if we keep warming to 2˚C, we could still lose a quarter of species in places like the Amazon and Galapagos. Local extinctions are already happening, with nearly half of the 976 species studied showing signs of disappearing from specific areas.

How The Crisis is Affecting Wildlife

Polar bear mother with cubs
Polar bear mother with cubs. Image by SURZet via Depositphotos.

As temperatures rise and weather patterns change, animals are being forced to respond. Some are moving to cooler areas, while others are changing their behaviors and even their physical traits. However, these shifts can help some species adapt but may cause others to struggle or even face extinction.

Animal Responses to Climate Change

American Pika in Canada. Image by Shawn.ccf via deposit images.

Animals have three choices when facing climate change: move, adapt, or die. Many are moving to higher elevations or farther from the equator, but this can lead to competition for food and unfamiliar territory. Unfortunately, some species, like the American pika, are already at the highest points and have nowhere left to go.

Challenges in Migration

Overview of a monarch butterfly.
Overview of a monarch butterfly. Image by WheresWildlife via Depositphotos.

Migration is not always a simple solution with these severe temperatures and monarch butterflies are especially battling with migration due to warmer temperatures. This, amongst other reasons, has caused the number of monarch butterflies to decrease by 95% over the last two decades. Additional challenges like habitat loss and food scarcity further threaten their survival.

Food Scarcity for Arctic and Marine Species

Polar bear image
Polar bears stick their tongue out it helps them cool down when they are warm. Image via Alan D. Wilson, CC BY-SA 3.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Polar bears and puffins are also struggling due to warming. Melting ice is reducing hunting grounds for polar bears, while puffins in Maine can’t find their preferred fish and must feed their young on less suitable alternatives, leading to starvation. Changes in food sources can have drastic effects on these species.

Some Animals Are Adapting

A mother flamingo with her egg.
A mother flamingo with her egg. Image by jaalbers via Depositphotos.

Some species are finding ways to adapt. For example, as temperatures warm, some birds are laying eggs earlier to match insect availability, while others, like butterflies, are emerging earlier in response to warmer springs. Corals in warmer waters are showing resilience to bleaching, indicating that some species can adapt to new conditions.

Ever Heard of Phenotypic Plasticity?

Dragonfly insect sitting on a water body.
Dragonfly insect sitting on a water body. Image by PantherMediaSeller via DEpositphotos.

Phenotypic plasticity allows some species to adjust their behavior, physical traits, or timing to survive in changing environments. This flexibility helps them cope with temperature changes, though it doesn’t always guarantee long-term survival. It works without altering their DNA but by switching certain genes on or off.

The Role of Epigenetics

Garden Locust
Garden locust on rock. Image via Charles J. Sharp, CC BY-SA 4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Epigenetics involves environmental factors that switch genes on or off, helping species adapt to new conditions. These changes can sometimes be passed to the next generation, allowing for more flexible adaptation. However, if conditions improve, these changes can be reversed.

Epigenetic Adaptations

Pet rats on a wooden background. Image via Deposit Photos.

In guinea pigs, epigenetic changes were observed when they were exposed to warmer temperatures, helping them adjust to heat. Interestingly, their offspring also showed different epigenetic changes, demonstrating this flexible adaptation process. However, this adaptability does not always ensure survival.

When Adaptation Isn’t Enough

sea turtle
Green Sea Turtle. Image via Depositphotos

Phenotypic plasticity is not a sure sign that everything will be fine. For example, the sex of green sea turtles is determined by the temperature of their nesting sand. Warmer temperatures are leading to a disproportionate number of female turtles, which could eventually result in local extinctions. In some areas, juvenile green sea turtles now have a female-to-male ratio of 116 to 1.

Human Impact and the Need for Action

Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve, Michoacan, Mexico.
Monarch Butterfly Biosphere Reserve, Michoacan, Mexico. Image by naticastillog via Depositphotos.

Humans depend on biodiversity for food, clean water, and overall health. If species cannot adapt to climate change, the consequences for humans could be severe. Protecting natural areas and creating migration paths for wildlife are essential strategies for supporting their survival.

The Call for Immediate Action

Underwater conservation efforts are needed to help better the situation. Image generated by Animals Around The Globe via DALL·E

Recent reports show biodiversity is declining worldwide, threatening economies, food security, and quality of life. We need urgent action to protect species and ecosystems before it’s too late. As IPBES chair Robert Watson says, “The time for action was yesterday or the day before.”

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