Hurricane Season Is About to Return With A Vengeance

The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season has arrived. Historically, about two-thirds of hurricane activity occurs between August 20 and October 10. This year, however, the Atlantic has been surprisingly quiet. Let’s take a look at this silence, and discover if there’s anything brewing!

Record-High Ocean Temperatures

A storm brewing out at sea. Image by baronmarinkovic via Pexels.

The Gulf of Mexico has recently reached record-high temperatures. Similarly, the Atlantic Ocean’s waters are alarmingly warm. These temperatures are ideal for hurricane development, yet no storms are currently forming.

A Quiet August

A person in the aftermath of a hurricane. — A person standing in the aftermath of a hurricane. Image via Pexels.

So far, August has been unusually calm for hurricane activity. There are no storms in the forecast for the remainder of the month and many are wondering when, or if, the Atlantic will become active again. The break in extreme weather is nice, but what does that mean moving forward?

Predictions for a Hyperactive Season

Palm trees battered by the wind. Image by guilherme christmann via Pexels.

Despite the quiet start, forecasters predict a hyperactive hurricane season! In fact, researchers say that we’ve already had 45% of the normal storm activity for a hurricane season. So, we’re actually ahead of schedule even with the August pause. This is due to an earlier start to the hurricane season than normal!

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE)

Hurricanes can be highly destructive. Image by kelly via Pexels.

Accumulated Cyclone Energy, or ACE, measures the total energy produced by storms over a season. This year, ACE is expected to be much higher than average. This metric helps researchers gauge the potential severity of the season whilst accounting for years where the storms are more spread out like this one.

Slow Start but Rapid Escalation

Hurricanes are known for creating intense waves. Image by lachlan ross via Pexels.

The 2024 hurricane season started slowly, with the first named storm forming in mid-June. However, storms quickly intensified, with several reaching significant strength. As mentioned earlier, by mid-August, the season had already accounted for 45% of a normal season’s ACE. It might not feel like a hurricane year, but it looks like it is!

Unusual Atmospheric Conditions

Hurricanes swirl as their high winds circle. Image by pixabay via Pexels.

Currently, several factors are inhibiting storm development in the Atlantic. One of these factors is the presence of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), which brings hot, dry, and dusty air. Additionally, tropical waves are forming farther north and facing harsh upper-level winds. These conditions make it harder for the storms to form like they normally would.

The Impact of the Saharan Air Layer

Road closed due to hurricane caused flooding. Image by alteredsnaps via Pexels.

The Saharan Air Layer has played a significant role in suppressing storms. This hot, dry air limits the formation of tropical storms by stopping the build-up of moisture in the air. It’s one of the primary reasons for the quiet period in the Atlantic. The way I imagine it, it’s like there’s a war between dust and water happening up in the clouds fighting to control the weather.

Changes Expected in Early September

City that has been hit by a hurricane. Image by artem makarov via Pexels.

Conditions are expected to change as September approaches. Forecasters anticipate a relaxation of the upper-level winds, allowing better-organized tropical waves. This could lead to an increase in hurricane activity as you would normally expect this time of year.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)

View of a hurricane from above. Image by pixabay via Pexels.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation is a large-scale weather pattern that will soon shift. This change will also create more favorable conditions for storm development in the Atlantic. It is expected to enhance the likelihood of storm formation in early September, so stay up to date on your safety procedure if you live somewhere that experiences hurricanes!

What to Expect in the Coming Weeks

A town that was hit hard by a hurricane. Image by arowar hussain via Pexels.

While the remainder of August is likely to stay quiet, activity should pick up in September. Forecasters predict a busy start to the month as calmer winds and less Saharan dust create better conditions. The Gulf of Mexico, in particular, could see rapid storm intensification, so it’s important to stay up to date on the forecast if you live in this area.

Conclusion: Preparing for the Rest of the Season

Car that has been destroyed in a hurricane. Image by Franklin pena gutierrez via Pexels.

Despite the current lull, the Atlantic hurricane season is far from over! The conditions are ripe for a surge in activity as September begins. So, residents in hurricane-prone areas should stay vigilant and prepared for any sudden changes.