Milton Forecasted to Be the Most Powerful Hurricane to Hit Tampa Bay in 100 Years

When John Morales, a certified South Florida meteorologist, began describing the severity of Hurricane Milton, he was overwhelmed with tears, and who could blame him? The emotion sums up the southeast still reeling from the impact of Helena. When things are about to stabilize, here comes another shocker of a hurricane in the form of Milton, now a potentially catastrophic category-five hurricane. Milton has intensified over the Gulf of Mexico, all set to become one of the most dangerous storms of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

According to a post on “X” on 7th October 2024 by the National Weather Channel, Tampa Bay:

“If Milton stays on its course, this will be the most powerful Hurricane to hit Tampa Bay in over 100 years. No one in the area has ever experienced a hurricane this strong before.”

How Did Hurricane Milton Develop, and What Category Is It Now?

Milton began as a tropical storm on Sunday and underwent “explosive intensification,” strengthening from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane in less than 24 hours. Forecasters have been shocked by the storm’s rapid growth, which exceeded predictions of reaching Category 5 status by several hours. With central pressure dropping to near-record lows, Milton has solidified its status as a potent system​.

With sustained winds reaching 180 mph, Milton is now a life-threatening system that has already prompted massive evacuations and emergency preparations along Florida’s Gulf Coast. This storm follows in the wake of recent hurricanes Helene and Debby, making it the third major Hurricane to impact the region within two months.

Hurricane Milton is Breaking Records

According to Fox and NBC weather services, Hurricane Milton is set to be one of the strongest hurricanes on record. The barometric pressure within the storm has dropped to 897 millibars, making it the second-lowest pressure on record in the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic since 2005. If wind speeds of 180 are sustained, Milton will be the strongest Atlantic hurricane in 5 years since Hurricane Dorian in 2019. Milton is also set to be the fourth strongest storm with hurricane Allen the highest Atlantic hurricane on record (Allen windspeed 190 mph).

The National Hurricane Center has posted on their “X” channel saying:

“Extremely powerful hurricane Milton just north of the Yucatan peninsula. Milton poses an extremely serious threat to Florida and residents are urged to follow the orders of local officials.”

When and Where Will It Make Landfall?

On Tuesday morning, Milton had weakened slightly to a Category 4 storm but is forecast to increase and grow.

The Hurricane is expected to make landfall late Wednesday or early Thursday, most likely along Florida’s western coastline near Tampa. Hurricane Milton will be the first hurricane in 100 years to directly hit Tampa. Various weather services have forecasted that Milton will slightly weaken before making landfall but will still likely remain a major hurricane (Category 3 or higher). Meteorologists warn that the precise location of landfall could vary, and areas outside the forecast cone should still be prepared for severe weather impacts​.

Expected Windspeed After Landfall

Once Milton makes landfall, it is projected to weaken slightly, with sustained winds of around 115-130 mph. While the exact strength at landfall remains uncertain, storm surge and wind damage are expected to be devastating regardless of this slight weakening. The storm will still pose significant threats, including heavy rainfall, widespread power outages, and destructive winds across much of the southeastern United States​.

Areas, Cities, or States of Southeast USA That Will Be Impacted

Florida’s Gulf Coast cities, including Tampa, Fort Myers, Orlando, and Jacksonville, are all in Milton’s projected path. The storm is expected to bring dangerous storm surges up to 15 feet in some areas. The Florida Keys and coastal regions further inland have been issued hurricane and storm surge warnings. Several southeastern states, including parts of Georgia and South Carolina, may experience heavy rain, flooding, and tropical storm-force winds as Milton moves northeast​.

What to Expect

Hurricane Milton is expected to bring a dangerous storm surge of up to 15 feet along parts of Florida’s Gulf Coast, including Tampa Bay. The most severe surge-related flooding is predicted to occur south of the storm’s landfall. Additionally, heavy rainfall is forecast, with central Florida likely to receive 5 to 10 inches, and some areas could see as much as 15 inches. This may result in significant flooding.

Hurricane conditions are expected by Wednesday afternoon, with tropical storm-force winds arriving by Wednesday morning. Milton is expected to make landfall Wednesday night.

Storm Surge Warnings

According to the National Weather Service, hurricane warnings are currently in effect along Florida’s western Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay, signalling that hurricane conditions (winds of 74 mph or higher) are expected within 36 hours. Tropical storm watches are also in place north and south of the hurricane zone, extending into Florida’s Big Bend and the southwest coast. Mexico’s northern Yucatan Peninsula is similarly under alerts for hurricanes and tropical storms.

A storm surge warning, indicating the potential for life-threatening flooding, is issued from Flamingo to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay. This surge could occur within the next 36 hours.

Evacuation orders are in effect for low-lying areas, and those who haven’t evacuated are urged to do so immediately. Authorities warn that Milton’s size and strength make it a potentially dangerous hurricane, and its impacts may be felt far inland. Residents in the projected impact zones are encouraged to finalize their preparations and stay tuned to local advisories as the situation develops.

Sources: Weather Channel, National Weather Service, Hurricane Center, Fox Weather