Sunspots Surge to Record 23 Year High, But Is the Sun Causing Global Warming?

Sunspots! Those little black spots sprouting on the sun’s surface may be cooler than their surroundings, but an increase in their activity is evidence of intense solar activity. Recent data has now revealed that sunspots on the Sun have surged to a 23-year high, with August 2024 registering the most active month since September 2001. In fact, the latest count was twice that of initial predictions marking a significant point in the solar cycle. So how is this affecting the earth? Is the sun impacting global warming, and climate change? Let’s find out.

What are Sunspots?

Sunspots are temporary dark patches on the Sun’s surface caused when surges of electromagnetic radiation break through the star’s magnetic field. This causes a cool patch that looks black to us on earth due to an optical illusion. These spots are key indicators of solar activity during its 11-year solar cycle, particularly during a solar maximum.

The Solar Cycle and Solar Maximum

The Sun follows an 11-year solar cycle, alternating between periods of high and low activity, known as solar maximum and solar minimum, respectively. During solar maximum, the Sun’s magnetic field flips, causing more sunspots and solar flares. In contrast, solar minimum experiences fewer sunspots, such as the 40 consecutive sunspot-free days in 2019.

Record Sunspot Activity in 2024

In August 2024, sunspot counts reached their highest in over two decades, with 337 sunspots recorded on August 8 alone. This indicates that the solar maximum of Solar Cycle 25, which began in 2020, is progressing more intensely than expected.

Initial Forecasts Versus Reality

Currently the sun is in solar cycle 25 which began in 2020. Scientists had predicted a relatively weak cycle, like Solar Cycle 24, but they turned out to be so very wrong. Instead, sunspot counts began climbing as early as 2022, and by June 2023, the numbers had surpassed those from Solar Cycle 24. The current sunspot numbers now exceed all projections.

Impact of Increased Solar Activity

The surge in sunspots has led to several geomagnetic storms and powerful solar flares, such as the X8.7 magnitude solar flare in May 2024, the largest in 5 years. However, due to its location, it did not impact the earth like that of X2.2 which erupted a week earlier triggering dazzling auroras that were visible as far as south of Mexico. Solar flares can potentially disrupt ground-based infrastructure, satellites, and communication systems on Earth.

Solar Maximum Outlook

If sunspot activity continues at this pace, we may witness more geomagnetic storms and increased solar phenomena. In August, scientists Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), which is jointly run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the National Weather Service recorded an average of 215.5 daily sunspots on the sun’s surface. The only time this number was matched was in September 2001 with the average number being 238.2 during solar cycle 24.

We May Be Experiencing the Solar Maximum

On August 8, the number of sunspots surged to a massive 337 in a 24-hour period surpassing all earlier records and prompting scientists to assume we are already in a solar maximum. The problem is that scientists will only be able to figure out the true extent of the sun’s activities after the peak. So, is this intense solar activity creating problems of unusual weather and global warming?

Is the Sun Causing Global Warming?

The answer is NO! According to NASA, While the sun does play a role in Earth’s climate, it is not responsible for the recent rapid warming trend. Satellite data since 1978 shows no increase in solar energy reaching Earth. Additionally, if the sun were the cause, all atmospheric layers would heat up. Instead, we see surface warming and cooling in the stratosphere, which points to heat-trapping gases as the culprit, not increased solar activity.

Solar Activity and Climate Change

The IPCC states that human-induced greenhouse gases have a much stronger warming effect than solar activity. Satellite observations over the past 40 years show the Sun’s energy output has fluctuated by less than 0.1%. Since 1750, the warming caused by human activities is over 270 times greater than the minor warming from solar influences during the same period. Since 1750, human activities have caused over 270 times more warming than solar influences.

If There Are No Sunspots, It Could Cause an Ice Age

The sun undoubtedly is getting hotter and will increase in brightness just 10% every billion years or so. However, this gradual increase in solar brightness is too slow to impact global warming today, with only a 0.01% increase expected in the next million years. Conversely, low solar activity could lead to cooling events, like the mini-ice age or the Maunder Minimum of the 17th century. The Maunder Minimum, a period between 1645 to 1715 saw fewer than 50 sunspots in 28 years. As a result, temperatures plummeted causing a mini-ice age when even the Thames in London froze over several times. Several scientists also attribute the Maunder minimum to increased volcanic activity and ocean circulation shifts.

Could a Solar Minimum Reverse Global Warming?

A grand solar minimum could cool surface temperatures by 0.3°C, temporarily slowing global warming. However, it wouldn’t reverse the trend. It would be a temporary reprieve with global temperatures rising back to normal once the event concluded. It is up to us humans to do our best in slowing down global warming and reduce the factors that cause climate change.

.