El Niño Looms Large Over This Hurricane Season – Image for illustrative purposes only (Image credits: Unsplash)
North Carolina’s ongoing drought may finally ease later this year even as the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season shapes up to be quieter than normal. Forecasters point to a developing El Niño in the Pacific as the main reason activity could drop sharply after an early start. The same pattern that limits tropical storms could also steer more moisture into the state during fall and winter.
Competing Forces in the Tropics
Warm sea surface temperatures across the western Atlantic and Caribbean continue to favor storm development this summer. Yet an emerging El Niño is already producing warmer waters off South America that are expected to spread westward and strengthen upper-level winds over the Atlantic. Those winds create shear that tears apart potential hurricanes before they organize.
Sea surface temperatures in the main development region sit 0.27 degrees Celsius above the long-term average as of mid-May. That level matches conditions seen at this point last year, when early activity picked up quickly. The Pacific warming, however, is forecast to become the dominant influence by late summer.
Official Outlooks Point to Below-Normal Activity
NOAA released its 2026 hurricane season outlook earlier this week, calling for 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes, and 1 to 3 major hurricanes. Those numbers fall below the 30-year averages of 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes, and 3.2 major hurricanes. The agency cited both the warm Atlantic waters and the developing El Niño as key factors.
Colorado State University forecasters issued a similar prediction of 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. Their outlook assumes a moderate to strong El Niño will be in place by the peak months of August through October. NC State’s statistical team projects a narrower range of 12 to 15 named storms, 6 to 9 hurricanes, and 2 to 3 major hurricanes.
Season Likely to Split Into Two Halves
Conditions now favor a relatively active early period before El Niño fully asserts itself. Wind shear remains high in May but is expected to ease through early summer, allowing the warm Atlantic waters to support storm formation. Historical parallels from 1997 and 2015 show that once strong El Niño patterns lock in, named-storm formation drops sharply after mid-September.
Only two named storms formed after the third week of September in each of those strong El Niño years. One of them, Hurricane Joaquin in 2015, still delivered heavy rain to parts of the Carolinas through its moisture plume. That pattern suggests any late-season tropical moisture reaching North Carolina would likely arrive in reduced amounts.
Stakes for North Carolina Residents
The state has gone nearly six years without a hurricane landfall, the longest such stretch since the gap between Isabel in 2003 and Irene in 2011. Coastal communities have not faced widespread evacuations since Florence in 2018. Meanwhile, the current drought traces partly to missing tropical rainfall last fall.
Wilmington normally receives more than eight inches of rain in both August and September, with some coastal areas drawing up to 20 percent of warm-season totals from tropical systems. A quiet second half of the season would extend that shortfall. Yet the same El Niño that limits storms is expected to strengthen the jet stream and bring wetter conditions by late fall and winter, as it did in 1997-98 and 2015.
Key developments to watch:
- Early-season formation in the Gulf and Caribbean through July
- Strength of El Niño by September and its effect on wind shear
- Whether any late tropical moisture reaches the Carolinas
- Shift to wetter patterns during the cool season
Residents along the coast and in the mountains will feel these shifts most directly. A quieter hurricane season reduces the risk of major wind and surge damage, while improved rainfall later could finally ease the drought that has persisted since last year. The outcome hinges on how quickly and strongly the El Niño develops in the months ahead.
